Foretic.io

The AI-Native Verification Layer for Market Predictions
Production-Ready IP Asset Strategic Acquisition Opportunity

The Problem

Everyone has an opinion; almost nobody has a verifiable track record. Social noise, "guru" fraud, wasted alpha, and fiduciary risk plague the financial prediction market. Today's tools ignore probabilities, time horizons, and risk relative to cash. There is conviction everywhere, but calibration is zero.

Our Solution

Foretic is the "truth machine" for financial conviction. It turns every market call into a live, machine-verifiable asset. Traders, advisors, and platforms publish standardized Positions, and our professor-grade Bayesian engine scores them in real time for calibration and outcome.

The Problem We're Solving

Everyone has an opinion; almost nobody has a verifiable track record.

  • Social Noise: Hundreds of millions of posts and "calls" on crypto, equities, FX – nearly all unstructured and unverifiable.
  • "Guru" Fraud: Influencers quietly delete bad calls and amplify lucky ones; retail has no way to see who is consistently skilled.
  • Wasted Alpha: Talented retail traders and buy-/sell-side analysts lack a standardized, immutable performance record to show capital allocators.
  • Fiduciary Risk: Advisors and platforms recommend trades and portfolios without a probabilistic, stress-tested paper trail to defend under "duty of care".
Today's tools (price targets, static charts, analyst ratings) ignore probabilities, time horizons, and risk relative to cash. There is conviction everywhere, but calibration is zero.

Our Solution

Foretic is the AI-native verification layer for market predictions – it behaves like "Strava for risk" by scoring every forecast like a workout. A subjective opinion becomes a Position – a mathematically rigorous, trackable, and scored financial forecast anchored to the risk-free rate.

The Position Protocol

A single, canonical data object any app, broker, or fund can write to: asset(s), direction, horizon, probabilistic cone of outcomes, explicit benchmark vs. risk-free cash, confidence and sizing assumptions, immutable timestamps.

The Oracle Engine

A proprietary 8-model Bayesian ensemble provides an institutional-grade "house view" for every asset: reference probability cones, CDaR/VaR metrics, live skill scoring (calibration vs. Oracle and vs. cash), robust back-check evaluation.

Surfaces & Viral Mechanics

Professional "Skill Cards" and dashboards, public pages & embeds for media/brokers/social feeds, challenge links for head-to-head comparisons that can be shared and embedded.

Skill Verification

Mathematically separates luck from genuine edge. Every visible number is backed by hard Bayesian math, allowing Foretic to verify calibration and outcome in real time.

Why We're Different

  • A forecasting protocol (Position standard), not just a UI
  • A Bayesian Oracle to calibrate skill vs. an institutional baseline
  • A verification and reputation layer that can sit inside brokerages, prop firms, media, and social platforms
  • On the surface it looks like a modern SaaS product; under the hood it is institutional quant math

Market & Use Cases

100M+
Active Retail & Social Traders
$100T+
Global AUM Needing Risk Tooling
Growing
Finfluencer Ecosystem Under Regulatory Pressure

Target Users

  • Retail Traders: "Prove I'm good enough to get funded."
  • Advisors / Wealth Managers: "Show clients probabilistic, stress-tested rationales for every recommendation."
  • Prop Firms: "Quantify a trader's edge before allocating capital."
  • Media / Terminals: "Transform opinion segments into live, verifiable track records and sentiment indices."

Regulatory Tailwind

SEC/FCA and others are tightening rules on social financial advice. Foretic offers a "responsible engagement" layer: every opinion is structured as a forecast, probabilistic, and transparently scored.

  • Regulatory compliance becoming mandatory
  • Fiduciary duty requirements increasing
  • Transparency and verification in demand

Product & IP Status

Live
Production Bayesian Engine
Defined
Position Protocol Schema
Proprietary
Calibration Algorithm
Ready
Production IP Asset

IP Components

Engine: Live production Bayesian ensemble ("Oracle") generating reference cones and risk metrics.
Core Technology
Institutional-Grade Math
Protocol: Defined, documented Position schema suitable for API integration and persistence.
Standard Format
Machine-Readable Forecasts
Scorecard: Proprietary calibration/outcome algorithm combining probabilistic accuracy, risk vs. cash, and overconfidence penalties.
Verification Layer
Skill Calibration

Competitive Positioning

We are not another charting tool or binary betting site.

Polymarket / Kalshi
Binary event markets ("yes/no"); no continuous path, no skill calibration.
TradingView / Generic Analytics
Rich charts, but no structured forecasting protocol or skill verification layer.
TipRanks / Rating Aggregators
Backward-looking and coarse; no real-time, probability-aware scoring.

Foretic's Advantages

  • A forecasting protocol (Position standard), not just a UI
  • A Bayesian Oracle to calibrate skill vs. an institutional baseline
  • A verification and reputation layer that can sit inside brokerages, prop firms, media, and social platforms
  • Institutional quant math that has lived in universities and hedge funds for decades

Business Model

Revenue Streams

  • Pro / Creator Subscription (~$50/mo): Unlimited Positions, advanced analytics, exportable Skill Cards for funding applications and client acquisition.
  • Advisor / Institutional SaaS (~$300+/seat/mo): Portfolio-level cones, CDaR/VaR reports, and "fiduciary defense" audit trails.
  • Enterprise & Data API: Embed the Position protocol into brokerages / trading apps. Sell aggregated, anonymized Foretic Sentiment / Skill Indices to funds, terminals, and research desks.

Growth Strategy

High-margin, cloud-native SaaS with strong viral growth from shared challenge links and embedded widgets. The platform creates network effects as more traders and platforms adopt the Position protocol.

Scalability

High
SaaS Gross Margins
Viral
Challenge Links & Embeds
Network
Protocol Adoption Effects

Strategic Asset Acquisition

Foretic is a collaboration between INC64 LLC and a team of professor-led founders who have created the underlying Bayesian forecasting model.

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